Art Blog #167: Germany’s 2025 Election: A Nation at a Crossroads

What’s at stake? A lot. The balance between left and right politics is shifting, the economy is slowing down, and external pressures—like a potentially re-elected Trump in the U.S., increasing tensions between China and the West, and the war in Ukraine—are putting Germany in a tricky position.

So, what do the polls say? What are people thinking in the former West and East Germany? And what does the future look like for Europe’s largest economy? Let’s break it down.

The Polls: Who’s Leading the Race?

Current polling suggests a major shake-up in German politics. Here’s where things stand:

• CDU/CSU (The Conservatives) – 30%. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party (CSU) are leading the race after spending four years in opposition. Their campaign focuses on economic recovery, tougher migration policies, and restoring traditional conservative values.

• AfD (The Far-Right Alternative for Germany) – 22%. The AfD is surging, particularly in the east, with a strong anti-immigration stance and nationalist rhetoric.

• SPD (The Social Democrats, Scholz’s Party) – 17%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party is struggling, partly due to its handling of economic issues and migration policies.

• The Greens – 14%. They remain stable but have lost momentum since their peak in 2021.

• FDP (The Free Market Liberals) – 4%. They are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

If the numbers hold, forming a coalition will be a challenge. The CDU/CSU might need to partner with the Greens or even negotiate with the SPD. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD is growing stronger, creating tensions about whether conservatives might cooperate with them at some level—something CDU leader Friedrich Merz has been sending mixed signals about.

The Big Issues: What’s Driving the Election?

1. Immigration and National Identity

Immigration is the most divisive issue in this election. After a series of violent incidents involving asylum seekers, there’s been a shift towards tougher migration policies. The CDU/CSU is promising stricter border controls, while the AfD wants to completely halt immigration from non-European countries. Meanwhile, the SPD and Greens argue that Germany still needs immigration due to its aging workforce.

2. The Economy: Is the “German Miracle” Fading?

Germany, once Europe’s economic powerhouse, is slowing down. The energy crisis, high inflation, and an overcomplicated bureaucracy have driven businesses away. The CDU/CSU is promising tax cuts and deregulation, while the SPD wants more state investment in infrastructure and social programs. The Greens, as expected, are pushing for renewable energy investments to drive future growth.

3. Germany’s Place in a Changing World

Globally, things are getting more complicated. The U.S. might be heading for another Trump presidency, which could mean new tariffs on German exports and more pressure for Germany to increase its military spending. China is both an economic partner and a geopolitical competitor, and the ongoing war in Ukraine is keeping Europe on edge.

Germany has often tried to stay in the middle, balancing its economic ties with China, its defense commitments to NATO, and its leadership role in the EU. But in 2025, this balancing act is becoming harder. The next government will need to make clear choices about where Germany stands on these global issues.

The East-West Divide: Two Germanys, Two Perspectives

Even though reunification happened over 30 years ago, political attitudes between the former West Germany (FRG) and former East Germany (GDR) remain deeply different.

• In the West, people tend to vote for mainstream parties like CDU, SPD, and the Greens. The focus here is on climate change, economic stability, and social policies.

• In the East, support for the AfD is much stronger, driven by economic frustration, distrust of elites, and opposition to immigration policies. Many Eastern Germans feel that reunification didn’t bring them the prosperity they were promised, and they’re still catching up to the West in wages and infrastructure.

The result? Two very different visions for Germany’s future, making national unity a challenge for whoever wins.

What’s Next?

Germany’s 2025 election isn’t just about domestic politics—it’s about how Germany positions itself in a world that’s rapidly changing.

• If the CDU/CSU wins, expect a shift back to more traditional, business-friendly, and security-focused policies.

• If the AfD continues to grow, Germany could see more political instability, making coalition-building more difficult.

• If the SPD and Greens manage a comeback, they’ll likely push for more progressive policies but face serious economic challenges.

Germany has long been Europe’s stabilizing force, but in 2025, that stability is under threat from both internal divisions and external pressures. This election will set the course for Germany’s future, not just for the next four years, but possibly for decades to come.

One thing is clear: Germany is at a crossroads, and the world is watching.

-Peter Von Hauerland